1st April 2024

Weekly Index Movement

Aussie All Ords+1.6%

Another week another new high, although this time it was energy and financials powering the index higher. Selling in Apple and Tesla dragged down the Nasdaq.

The S&P500 is now up 10.2% for the year and this quarter was the best first quarter since 2019

It was a slow news week so rather than do the usual catch-up this week, I thought I would show you some interesting statistics.

Did you know that the S&P500 has had just 4 more up days than down days in 2024 and those are the difference between the index being up 4% rather than the actual 10%.

If we look at the 4 best days in 2024 we can build a mental model of what is really driving stock prices. Here they are:

February 22nd (S&P +2.1%). Nvidia reports Q4 earnings and its stock price rallies 16.4%.

January 8th (S&P +1.4%). After starting the year with 3 consecutive days of losses the S&P rallied strongly on the back of Big Tech (Nasdaq +2.2%).

February 1st (S&P +1.3%). The day after the first Fed meeting of the year when the S&P had posted its worst 1-day return (-1.6%) of the year to date. As was the case several times in 2023, buyers jumped in after the big sell-off to snap up bargains.

January 19th (S&P +1.2%). A strong earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) earlier in the week boosted Tech stocks (Nasdaq +1.7 pct). This was also the day the S&P 500 finally made a new all-time high for the first time since early 2021.

The other 4 days that have “made the year” are:

March 12th (+1.1 %): Oracle beats earnings and previews a pending partnership with Nvidia (NVDA +7.2% on the day).

February 2nd (+1.0 %): A follow-on to the prior day, post-FOMC rally, as discussed above.

March 7th (+1.0% ): No major events today aside from the second day of Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony, but tech stocks were market leadership (Nasdaq +1.5%).

March 1st (+0.8%): Despite bad news from the US banking sector (NY Community Bank -26%), US large caps rallied on better tech stock valuations (Nasdaq +1.1%). Nvidia crossed $2 billion market cap for the first time.

Viewed through this lens, the year’s major investment themes have been enthusiasm over generative artificial intelligence and growing confidence in Federal Reserve rate cuts. I continue to believe that markets will need a new catalyst as we get into the middle of 2024, and that must almost certainly be corporate earnings.

Apple (AAPL) had a very bad quarter

Apple’s (AAPL) stock price is down 11% so far in 2024.

Apple’s latest headache came in the form of a Bloomberg report citing Chinese government data, reported that iPhone shipments fell 33% year over year in the country in February.

China is Apple’s third-largest market behind North America and Europe. In 2023, the region accounted for $72.6 billion of Apple’s $383.3 billion in total revenue. That’s roughly 19% of the company’s sales.

And this isn’t exactly out of the blue. Earlier this month, Counterpoint Research reported that iPhone sales fell 24% year over year through the first six weeks of 2024 in the country. Overall smartphone unit sales in China declined 7% during the same period.

Outside of Apple’s China sales drama, the company is also facing its long-anticipated antitrust fight with the Department of Justice. The lawsuit, which the DOJ filed last Thursday, accuses Apple of illegally maintaining dominance over the premium smartphone market by pushing aside competing apps and devices.‌

The Justice Department claims that Apple imposes restrictions on app developers, makes it difficult for users to switch to competing platforms, and hinders cloud gaming and so-called super apps that allow users to access multiple smaller apps from one larger platform.‌

Apple, however, is fighting back, saying in a statement that the suit “threatens who we are and the principles that set Apple products apart in fiercely competitive markets. If successful, it would hinder our ability to create the kind of technology people expect from Apple.”‌

The DOJ is seeking to force Apple to change its business practices, which could mean giving third-party apps greater access to the company’s platforms and requiring Apple to expand compatibility with third-party device makers.

In addition to slowing iPhone sales in China and the DOJ’s antitrust suit, the European Union’s competition watchdog, the European Commission, on Monday announced that it is looking into whether Apple is in compliance with the bloc’s Digital Markets Act.

In a statement released Monday, the Commission said it is investigating Apple’s new app fee structure in the EU, as well as whether it meets user choice obligations related to default apps and the ability to delete preinstalled apps.

While Apple is certainly facing a slew of challenges, it’s far from down and out. It’s still the second-richest company in the world by market capitalization — behind Microsoft — and it’s sure to continue to sell millions of devices and services subscriptions throughout the year ahead. Still, for the foreseeable future, Apple could be in for a bumpy ride.

Election Cycle

There is a belief out there that the 4-year US election cycle leads to predictable stock market movements.

The strange part of this is I believe in this one. I have seen it play out too many times to ignore it.

So let’s check-in on the Biden cycle.

The Biden cycle has been following the typical pattern. Just doing it to the extremes. That is good for the rest of 2024, but not so good for the next few weeks. The highlighted red box is April to end May and typically, in year 4, this period is negative for the S&P500 index.

Given how far we have come this year and the fact the index has been in overbought territory for 50+ days, a market pause or pullback here should not be a surprise.

I, for one, hope it does because it will set up a lovely buy point for a Q3 rally.

Is Bitcoin a Buy?

Jimmy here with some news on Bitcoin. The old boys in the office don’t get Bitcoin so it is down to me to explain.

True, you cannot value Bitcoin. But you can no longer deny it as an investment class.

The bit the old boys here don’t appreciate is your typical Bitcoin buyer is not the same as your typical stock buyer. Bitcoin buyers are true fanatics. They buy and never want to sell. They think Bitcoin is going to $100,000 per coin. That reduces supply while demand is always there.

Now, there is an event coming up soon that could help them with this dream.

In less than 3 weeks, Bitcoin is halving. This happens roughly once every 4 years. Historically, when there has been a bitcoin halving, we have seen bullish sentiment around bitcoin and big gains in the months following the halving. Could this be the time to invest in bitcoin?

With a halving, the amount of Bitcoin mined is halved. This will result in less Bitcoin being added into the supply pool. Simple economics tells us, Supply Down, Demand Up, Price Up.

There has been an increase in access to bitcoin. Now you don’t need a coin app and 3 different brokers to get access to Bitcoin, you can simply buy into a Bitcoin ETF through your stock account and get your hands on your share of bitcoin that way. The ETFs like IBIT and BITX are really starting to take off.

Now that everyone has seen what bitcoin has done in the previous halving’s, the hype around the bull run is real. Forbes just released an article on the 27th of March talking all about the Bitcoin halving and what the big players think. For example, the CEO of Blockstream (a blockchain technology company) believes Bitcoin will hit $100K before the halving. That’s almost a 50% increase. Even the CEO of BlackRock has stated in interviews that he is ‘very bullish’ on bitcoin.

Who knows, maybe we see bitcoin fly high and grow another 1000% over the coming years, or will the old boys be right and we see it plummet and Bitcoin buyers get a reality check.


Stock values can go down as well as up. It is possible to lose 100% of your investment in a stock. Any advice given by Capital 19 is general advice only and does not take your personal circumstances into account and might not be suitable for you.