13 May 13th May 2025
Index Movement Last Week
| S&P500 | -0.5% |
| Nasdaq | -0.3% |
| Aussie ASX200 | -0.0% |
I thought we would have a lot to disect this week, but there really isn’t.
There is an old trader’s adage “If there is nothing to do, do nothing”. I’m sure by now you are all 100% long after me hearing harping on about buying this market for weeks. Now you are positioned it is time to relax and sit back and wait for the next bit of excitement to bring opportunity.
Last week saw small falls in stocks which have been obliterated already by the announcement of a 90-day cease fire in the trade tariff war between Trump and China. Stocks in both China and the US soared on the news.
After two days of high-stakes talks in Switzerland, trade negotiators from the world’s biggest economies announced Monday a massive de-escalation in tariffs. In a carefully coordinated joint statement, the US slashed duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, while Beijing dropped its levy on most goods to 10%.
The S&P500 jumped 3% on this news and now sits just 5% below it’s all time high. Anyone worried about a recession need not be. If there was any chance of that happening the markets would be giving you a clear signal. And since there is no recession then we are in buy the dip mode.
Stocks reacted so strongly because the US were quick to drop tariffs. Markets see this as a win for Xi. In China his support has increased because they see him standing up to Trump. In the US, all the Sentors who were worried about losing their seats bare breathing more easily. Everyone is happy. This action shows the parties are willing to negotiate and some kind of deal will be done.
I suspect it will likely be much like that done with the UK. Which was basically the UK just agreeing to everything and ending up with 10% on their exports to the US. It is a much worse deal than they had prior to April 2nd, but for some reason everyone is celebrating.
If most other deals go a similar way the result will be a one time jump in US inflation, which the Fed has said they will look past, greater revenue for the US government to help them reduce their debt and trade pretty much goes back to normal.
The Fed kept rates on hold because the economy, especially employment, is still so strong but acknowledged even they do not know what the impact of tariffs will be, yet they will be quick to respond if they see a deterioration in economic numbers.
So where are we? A strong economy, growing company profits, deals on tariffs being made, lower government debt coming and a Fed ready to drop rates should they need to.
Can anyone see anything to worry about here?
Rubrik (RBRK)
Here is a stock that stood out for me during earnings season. The growth rate here says this could provide you will a “nice little earner”. (Anyone who can tell me where that phrase comes from get a prize)
Since going public in the first half of 2024, RBRK, has topped EPS and sales forecasts in all four of its reports and capped off the triple play by raising guidance twice. It is a cybersecurity and data management company specialising in providing cloud-based solutions for data protection, cyber resilience, and business continuity. The company’s flagship offering, Rubrik Security Cloud, is a SaaS
platform designed to secure data across enterprise, cloud, and SaaS environments. It integrates features such as data backup and recovery, data threat analytics, data security posture management, and cyber recovery solutions. Built on a Zero Trust architecture, the platform aims to protect against cyber threats, including ransomware attacks, by ensuring data integrity and rapid recovery capabilities.
In its most recent earnings report to cap off its first year as a public company, RBRK delivered
39% growth in subscription ARR to $1.093 billion and record net new ARR of $90 million in Q4
alone. Customer expansion was a standout, with $100K+ ARR customers growing 29% to 2,246
and $1M+ customers growing 64%.
Product differentiation played a major role in the company’s ability to expand, particularly with the full integration of DSPM (Data Security Posture Management) into Rubrik Security Cloud, which enabled large customers to protect sensitive unstructured data and accelerate GenAI deployments like Microsoft Copilot.
Additionally, identity protection is emerging as a new growth pillar, with early adoption of
RBRK’s orchestrated Active Directory Forest Recovery, reducing recovery time from days to
under an hour. Looking ahead, management discussed sustained demand for cyber resilience,
rising regulatory pressures like DORA in Europe, and its partnership with Microsoft as key
tailwinds.
Unlike the rest of the market, it has already recovered from the Tariff swoon and will be making new highs very soon.
Warning
Stock values can go down as well as up. It is possible to lose 100% of your investment in a stock. Any advice given by Capital 19 is general advice only and does not take your personal circumstances into account and might not be suitable for you.