02 Jun 1st June 2026

Markets Year to Date

Today I am going to focus on just one topic – SpaceX.

This is going to be the biggest IPO listing ever and I cannot think of a prior event with more hype and retail interest. At present the expected listing date will be June 12th.

I don’t think we have ever received as much interest in an IPO. I also don’t think I have ever seen people so interested in something they have no idea about.

It amazes me that people will risk thousands of dollars on something they have no idea about.

So today is all about just what SpaceX is and whether you should buy it.

SpaceX is trying to raise $75billion. The weird thing is why? Why bother?

Anthropic raised $65billion just last week with no public listing, no increased disclosure, no need for investor relations, no public market pricing of your company.

SpaceX could have easily raised this $75billion from private equity and had a much easier time.

I am suspicous.

Then add in the fact that only 3% to 5% of its float will be public. The rest will remain private.

If successful it will value the company around $1.75trillion.

If you think this company will go off like a rocket (pun intended) when it hits the market then you have to consider, if the IPO goes 20% higher, then it means the value of the whole company has gone up 20% to $2.1trillion.

$2.1trillion just so happens to be the market cap of the entire Energy sector in the S&P500.

At that valuation you are saying SpaceX is worth the same as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Conoco Philips, SLB, Williames Companies, etc etc etc. all added together. You could own SpaceX or you could own the entire energy sector.

Really? Can it possibly be worth that much?

SpaceX is

• A great recurring revenue business (satellite internet, with high recurring revenues and a very strong competitive position)
• X (formerly Twitter) and Grok (Musk’s AI)
• Which fund 3 distinct long-term visions. Better AI. Data Centres in space and humans on other planets.

If you take the PE of Telsa (ridiculously high) and then use that as a multiple to value Starlink you get to about $400billion. Lets say Grok is worth another $150billion (only 3% of users on Grok vs 30%+ on OpenAi and Anthropic). The total value of the existing business becomes $550billion

Which means, at the $1.75tillion valuation, you have to believe the pie in the sky, sci-fi dreams are worth $1.2trillion.

You would be valuing a product that has not been tested, has no proof of concept, basically has nothing at $1.2trillion.

It means, if you buy SpaceX, you are saying the value of a completely untested dream is worth the same as the biggest oil company in the world – Saudi Aramco. You could give your money to Musk and wonder if data centres in space are going to work or you could be the biggest player in Middle East Oil.

I hope you can see what these numbers mean.

Buying SpaceX means you have to unequivocally believe data centres in space will happen and they will be highly profitable. You are probably packing your bags for your visit to Mars too.

Me – I like to exist in the real world where real profits and real products exist.

Lastly some information you might not be aware of. This came from a company called Pitchbook that investigated the outcomes of Ai start up companies.

Startups that raised money in 2021 for Ai are worth 68% less on average. Those that raised in 2022 are down around 52%. More than 220 companies that were once valued over $1billion are now worth significantly less.

The point of showing this data is to illustrate that a lot of Ai companies are not successful. We only hear about the ones that are. But most are not.

We will soon find out whether SpaceX will join this list or prove me very wrong and go on to make good profits for investors.

Warning

Stock values can go down as well as up. It is possible to lose 100% of your investment in a stock. Any advice given by Capital 19 is general advice only and does not take your personal circumstances into account and might not be suitable for you.